» » Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just About Everything Else

Free eBook Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just About Everything Else download

by Amir D. Aczel

Free eBook Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just About Everything Else download ISBN: 1568583168
Author: Amir D. Aczel
Publisher: Thunder's Mouth Press; Third Printing edition (2004)
Language: English
Pages: 161
Category: Math Science
Subcategory: Mathematics
Size MP3: 1633 mb
Size FLAC: 1742 mb
Rating: 4.4
Format: txt mobi mbr rtf


Chance by Amir D Aczel is quite the gem. This slim volume on probability is packed with information and applications. The book makes for a great primer to the subject, mainly due to its focus on practical applications rather than some ivory tower pure mathematics

Chance by Amir D Aczel is quite the gem. The book makes for a great primer to the subject, mainly due to its focus on practical applications rather than some ivory tower pure mathematics. Pros and cons of the book are as follows; +The book is very short. Despite that, the book is packed with information. While it has few equations, it does not detract from the enjoyment.

Amir D. Aczel earned both his BA in mathematics and Master of Science degree from the University of Oregon. Definitely a starter book only. One person found this helpful.

CHANCE A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just About Everything Else. 161 pp. Thunder's Mouth Press. After his death, his paper was exhumed, and the field of Bayesian statistics was born

Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just.

Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just. About Everything Else. 00 ISBN 1-56858-316-8. The first thing one notices about the book is that it is tiny.

In Chance, celebrated mathematician Amir D. Aczel turns his sights on probability theory -the branch of mathematics that . Mass Market Paperback Paperback Hardcover Mass Market Paperback Paperback Hardcover. Aczel turns his sights on probability theory -the branch of mathematics that measures the likelihood of a random event.

Mathematician Amir D Aczel leads you through simple explanations of each of these forces in life, and explains . Mathematician Aczel has written several books on mathematical and scientific topics for the general public (. Fermat's Last Theorem ).

Mathematician Amir D Aczel leads you through simple explanations of each of these forces in life, and explains how you can use your new-found knowledge of these mathematical paradoxes to succeed (or at least have the best CHANCE of succeeding) in gambling, poker, love, who will win the next election and how to choose a housemate or puppy.

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock . How can we predict the random events happening around us?. Even better, how can we manipulate them?.

How can we predict the random events happening around us?.

If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation. More services and features. Aczel turns his sights on probability theory-the branch of mathematics that measures the likelihood of a random event. He explains probability in clear, layman's terms, and shows its practical applications. What is commonly called luck has mathematical roots and in Chance, you'll learn to increase your odds of success in everything from true love to the stock market.

Chance defines our life. Will you get the job, the lover, and the money? Now Amir Aczel, in this slim book modeled on his very successful Fermat's Last Theorem, gives readers the tools to minimize, or maximize, chance's effect on their lives. Chance marks Aczel's return to his preferred field: the popularization of mathematics. Here, Aczel explores probability theory and its daily, practical applications, while along the way relating stories of inveterate gamblers who also happen to be mathematical geniuses. With the clarity of the statistician he once was, Aczel analyzes what is commonly known as luck. Alongside chapters on "The Surprising Birthday Problem," "Coincidences," and "How to Make Great Decisions" are a history of probability theory and anecdotes of its daily applications.
User reviews
Daron
Interesting enough look at a topic that many of us struggled through in math and statistics. The examples and "real life" applications are interesting enough, and the book is a pretty quick read. The math itself is conceptually easy to understand - but moving to the math of the problems and the walkthrough of equations leaves a bit to be desired. Might be useful as a supplement to a math textbook or stats class, but tough as a stand alone read.
Elastic Skunk
Reading it now, he's a great writer. Also all my books arrive in a timely manner.
kolos
A short book describing in non-technical terms some standard topics in mathematical probability -- e.g. gambler's ruin, coincidences, birthday problem, secretary problem. The writing style is reasonably clear and accurate. But this type of material has been covered in many other books with more breadth and flair, not to mention value for money. Read instead Rosenthal Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities.
Tar
I first heard of this little gem of a book on NPR's Fresh Air, where the author was being interviewed about it.

I wrote down the author and located a copy at the local library. After renewing it several times to the limit, I realized I had to have my own copy.

For those who'd like to see statistics and probability applied to real-life problems, this will prove an entertaining book.

The math is not difficult, and the author explains it quite well, including why sometimes, your "common sense" can lead you astray.

Like all good math books, this one has problems for you to work (with answers) to increase your knowledge. It also has an Appendix with references for further reading.

This book was the door that led me to renew my appreciation of the value of math in our everyday lives.
Realistic
Very good book with plain language, clear examples and explanations of complex probability and statistics issues, it helped me to reconsider the concepts I studied at the university and to find out references to books and articles with information on specific areas. However, I did not find any information or explanations of theories on effective strategies to catch chance I expected to find there.
Phobism
Nice book to start learning about probability theory. Well written in that it is clear, gives good examples, uses formulas that one can follow. Definitely a starter book only. A bit expansive in how to make predictions of who to marry and how to beat the stock market!!
Wiliniett
This is a book about probability, the “quantitative measure of the likelihood of a given event.” The author applies probability theory in numerous scenarios.

Assuming a World War II pilot had a 2% chance of being shot down on each mission, what are the chances of a pilot being shot down in 50 missions? Nope—it is not 50 x 0.02. Using the law of unions of independent events, the answer is 1 – 0.9850 = 0.64 = 64%. In another example, there are three overnight couriers with an on-time record of 90%, 88%, and 92% respectively. If someone sent an important document using all three services, what is the probability of at least one of them delivering on time? The answer is 1 – (0.10 x 0.12 x 0.08) = 0.99904 = 99.904%.

“So what have we noticed here? We’ve noticed that as the number of trials goes up, so does the probability of success… Suppose that my probability of getting a job is a mere half a percent, that is, 0.005. My claim is that if I can just persevere and apply at a very large number of firms, I can bring my probability of getting at least one job offer to a virtual certainty as well… If I apply for two thousand jobs, my probability of getting at least one job offer is: 1 – 0.9952000 = 0.999956, or 99.9956%.”

“This also helps explain the increase in prostate cancer in men in America; as they are living longer and not dying from other causes, their odds of developing the otherwise uncommon cancer increase to 50%.”

However, perseverance doesn’t always guarantee success, such as with gambling. “The reason for this is that trials aren’t free—you have to pay for each gamble.” Another factor in gambling is that the games are designed to give the house a better chance of winning. “But let’s suppose that the game is fair… A famous mathematical theorem states that even in such a fair game, when you play against a much wealthier adversary, like a casino, given enough [bets], the gambler will lose with probability 1—or absolute certainty. This is called the Gambler’s Ruin Theorem.”

“Pascal’s triangle gives us a way of computing the probabilities of the number of heads or tails in any number of coin tosses (or the number of boys and girls in any number of children born to a couple, or any of similar equal-probability phenomena) … If the chances of a boy and a girl are equal, then by Pascal’s triangle only one of every 32 families with five children will have all girls or all boys… Notice an interesting property of probabilities that is apparent from inspecting the numbers in Pascal’s magic triangle: as the number of trials (tosses of the coin) increases, the probability of an even split becomes smaller! … Try this with larger numbers of tosses. If you toss a coin 12 times, the probability of an even split of heads and tails is as small as 23%.”

“The inspection paradox is one of my favorite topics in probability theory… Mathematically, what the inspection paradox says is that a probability distribution of a quantity that has already started its life is shifted, leading to a larger average than would otherwise be expected… Immigrants skew the longevity statistic upward. The reason is simple: an immigrant, arriving at his or her new country at a certain age, can no longer die at any age younger than the present. Let’s look at an extreme case. Suppose you have a country where everyone is an immigrant, and everyone arrives in this country at age 80. Clearly, such a country will have an inflated longevity—some age higher than 80.”

In another example, the light bulb you have your lamp has a longer life than average. “Before an inspection, meaning before the light bulb is used, the average total lifetime of the light bulb is some number—in this case, two thousand hours. But let’s think a minute: this stated average incorporates the probabilities that the light bulb will fail in its first hour of operation (plus its first week, its first month, etc.). But your light bulb—the one that’s in right now—has already endured, surviving its first day, first week, first month. It can no longer fail in any earlier time than the present; therefore its total expected lifetime is longer than that of a light bulb you just bought… The same holds for batteries—and people’s lives. A person alive today will live, on average, longer than the expected longevity for his or her gender or nationality or ethnicity or any other category… For example, someone alive today can no longer die from infant mortality.”

The author also explains why you should expect to have a longer than average wait at the bus stop.

With 23 people in the room, there is a 50% chance that two people will share a birthday. “Even more surprising, when 56 people are present in a room, there is a 99% probability that at least two of them share a birthday… In nature, we find much more aggregation—due to pure randomness, rather than despite of it—than we might otherwise expect… The birthday problem with all its attendant expansions is a problem of aggregated coincidences.”

“If, for example, you wanted to know what the probability is that in a group of 23 people, including yourself, at least one person will match your birthday.” We go back to the probability of the union of independent events: 1 – (364/365)22 = 1-0.94 = 6%. “And with 365 people in the room, that probability is still only 63%.”

Mathematically, what’s the best strategy to find the optimal spouse? “Suppose over a lifetime you expect to meet one hundred available candidates. If you marry the first one, the chance that you have indeed found the best of all one hundred candidates is only 1/100. Likewise, if you wait to meet all one hundred candidates, you will have rejected the 99 who came before, and the possibility that the last person you meet is also the best is again only 1/100. The best strategies allow you to sample for a while, in order to learn about the various candidates; and of all such strategies, the best has you sampling 37% of the total and then choosing the first candidate thereafter who beats all the ones who came before. Of course, there’s a chance you will never find one who is better than all 37% you’ve already seen.”